The Arab Spring has raised hopes that a new era of positive change may be emerging in the Middle East. However, there also exists an unusually high risk of conflict and instability, as the Iranian nuclear crisis remains unresolved, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict enters a new and uncertain phase after the collapse of the peace process, and revolutions and uprisings portend prolonged internal disorder, rapid foreign policy realignments and the disintegration of the regional security order. In the longer-term, chronic socioeconomic problems related to youth unemployment and food and water insecurity, exacerbated by climate change, will continue to challenge even the most stable regimes.

Addressing these threats will require action on multiple fronts, none more important than the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which remains the most likely trigger for large-scale regional conflict. In Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, those pursuing resolution to the conflict on the basis of human rights, international law and non-violence must be supported and empowered. In the international arena, particularly the United States, a non-partisan mainstream constituency for justice in the conflict must be built from the ground up.

In transitioning countries, particularly Egypt, initiatives are required to address the drivers of socioeconomic crisis that could derail progress towards democratization. More broadly in the region, there is a need for building cross-border capacity to address a set of rapidly emerging common challenges, such as disease management and water, energy, and food security.

Finally, it is imperative to track the fast-changing security environment and establish new patterns of diplomatic engagement that help to reinforce, rather than undermine, the above goals.