Encouraging New Ideas in the Nuclear Sphere

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We, together with the Hewlett Foundation, Carnegie Corporation, MacArthur Foundation, and Ploughshares Fund, are putting in motion a new effort to bring positive disruption to the arena of nuclear security. We five funders share common goals of increasing nuclear security and decreasing risks from nuclear weapons. We believe that, to achieve these goals, we need to drive more attention to the issue and surface ideas that can gain traction in today’s crowded policy space. This new initiative is aimed at exploring ways to bring new players and new ideas into the nuclear sphere. The nuclear security community today is effective, but new ideas and partners could help us become even more effective.  Advances in sectors like data, mobile communications and technology are opening new avenues for tackling complex issues like climate, infectious disease and shared resource use. We believe cross-fertilization from these fields could lead to advances in the nuclear sphere as well. The group is looking to hire an initiative lead who’ll help design the initiative and be the driving force behind this pilot. You can read the position description and how to apply here.

National Flu Awareness Week – Spread the Word, Not the Flu

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FluNearYou.org is a free and anonymous crowdsourced flu reporting system that we’ve helped launch that aims to save lives and reduce misery.  It’s goal is to create an early warning system to help detect and head off the spread of deadly flu outbreaks.

 

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December 8 kicks off National Vaccination Awareness Week and Skoll Global Threats Fund and FluNearYou.org need your participation now to help raise awareness of the dangers of flu and the value of FluNearYou.org.

 

The Flu Near You team has launched a Facebook Flu Mask Campaign that let’s you temporarily put a Flu Mask on your Facebook profile picture to show you’ve joined the #FluForce. It only takes a couple minutes and a couple steps, and it’s more than worth it. Just go here to join through Twibbon.

 

Thanks for joining in and helping to Spread the Word, Not the Flu!

 

Big Data and Resilience

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Our Climate Director, Amy Luers, is a Bellagio PopTech Fellow this year. She participated in the PopTech conference last week, and has been working with the other Bellgio PopTech Fellows (photo below, Amy’s 2nd from left) on the question of how big data can be used effectively – and ethically – to promote community resilience. They’ve published a white paper, “Big Data, Communities and Ethical Resilience: A Framework for Action,” that you can download here.  You can read a PopTech blog about the paper here.

 

Digital Disease Detection Conference – Live Stream

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We’re co-hosting a conference starting today in San Francisco on digital disease detection. HealthMap (at Boston Children’s Hospital) is our co-host, and University of San Francisco is graciously providing the space. For those new to the issue, digital disease detection refers to the use of digital sources, web searches, and other technology to surface early signals of disease outbreaks and improve the ability to stop the spread of contagious diseases. (Our Flu Near You project is one example of this.) The conference will be bringing together leaders in technology and public health to explore how new tools can help tackle infectious disease. You can see the agenda and list of speakers here.

Today will kick off with keynotes from execs from Facebook and Quid, followed by a series of rapid fire talks on different technologies and how they’re being applied to disease detection. All of these will be available via a live stream here starting at 1:00 pm. The rapid fire talks with continue tomorrow morning at 9:00 am, also live streamed at the same URL. Folks will be tweeting from the event with a #DigDisTech hash tag.

It should be a really interesting event, so we hope you can watch!

 

(Appropriate) Big Data for Climate Resilience?

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This was originally published by our Climate Change Director, Amy Luers, in the Stanford Social Innovation Review here.

Big data—the massive data sets that we collect and analyze to help understand complex systems, and that we mine to reveal trends in new ways and at a scale and speed often impossible even a decade ago—is all the rage. It has transformed how we conduct science, business, public health, and humanitarian efforts.

So can big data help local communities, cities, and nations cope with the disruptions and inevitable surprises from climate change? This is the question I explored while participating in the Bellagio/Poptech Fellows retreat sponsored by the Rockefeller Foundation. Big data has transformed scientists’ ability to understand the climate system and develop plausible scenarios of the future. However, while those roles are important, ultimately society’s ability to cope with climate change will depend less on the accuracy of these projections and more on the level of “resilience derived from bottom-up community efforts.

The answer to whether big data can help communities build resilience to climate change is yes—there are huge opportunities, but there are also risks.
Opportunities

Feedback: Strong negative feedback is core to resilience. A simple example is our body’s response to heat stress—sweating, which is a natural feedback to cool down our body. In social systems, feedbacks are also critical for maintaining functions under stress. For example, communication by affected communities after a hurricane provides feedback for how and where organizations and individuals can provide help. While this kind of feedback used to rely completely on traditional communication channels, now crowdsourcing and data mining projects, such as Ushahidi and Twitter Earthquake detector, enable faster and more-targeted relief.

Diversity: Big data is enhancing diversity in a number of ways. Consider public health systems. Health officials are increasingly relying on digital detection methods, such as Google Flu Trends or Flu Near You, to augment and diversify traditional disease surveillance.

Self-Organization: A central characteristic of resilient communities is the ability to self-organize. This characteristic must exist within a community (see the National Research Council Resilience Report), not something you can impose on it. However, social media and related data-mining tools (InfoAmazonia, Healthmap) can enhance situational awareness and facilitate collective action by helping people identify others with common interests, communicate with them, and coordinate efforts.

Risks

Eroding trust: Trust is well established as a core feature of community resilience. Yet the NSA PRISM escapade made it clear that big data projects are raising privacy concerns and possibly eroding trust. And it is not just an issue in government. For example, Target analyzes shopping patterns and can fairly accurately guess if someone in your family is pregnant (which is awkward if they know your daughter is pregnant before you do). When our trust in government, business, and communities weakens, it can decrease a society’s resilience to climate stress.

Mistaking correlation for causation: Data mining seeks meaning in patterns that are completely independent of theory (suggesting to some that theory is dead). This approach can lead to erroneous conclusions when correlation is mistakenly taken for causation. For example, one study demonstrated that data mining techniques could show a strong (however spurious) correlation between the changes in the S&P 500 stock index and butter production in Bangladesh. While interesting, a decision support system based on this correlation would likely prove misleading.

Failing to see the big picture: One of the biggest challenges with big data mining for building climate resilience is its overemphasis on the hyper-local and hyper-now. While this hyper-local, hyper-now information may be critical for business decisions, without a broader understanding of the longer-term and more-systemic dynamism of social and biophysical systems, big data provides no ability to understand future trends or anticipate vulnerabilities. We must not let our obsession with the here and now divert us from slower-changing variables such as declining groundwater, loss of biodiversity, and melting ice caps—all of which may silently define our future. A related challenge is the fact that big data mining tends to overlook the most vulnerable populations. We must not let the lure of the big data microscope on the “well-to-do” populations of the world make us blind to the less well of populations within cities and communities that have more limited access to smart phones and the Internet.

Trade Offs

The big data revolution is upon us. How this will contribute to the resilience of human and natural systems remains to be seen. Ultimately, it will depend on what trade-offs we are willing to make. For example, are we willing to compromise some individual privacy for increased community resilience, or the ecological systems on which they depend?—If so, how much, and under what circumstances?
From Appropriate Technology to Appropriate Big Data

The opportunities and risks around big data for climate resilience reminds me of the dormant “Appropriate Technology Movement,” brought to prominence with Schumacher’s influential book Small Is Beautiful: Economics as if People Mattered. In the face of rapid technological growth, the appropriate technology movement promoted small-scale, decentralized, locally controlled and people centered technologies. Is it time for an “appropriate big data movement”—one that considers the needs of communities, captures the broader context in which they exist, and pushes society to confront the trade-offs in the decisions (or non-decisions) we are making?